I described the feeling of Gator Nation heading into the 2023 season as “Fear and Loathing in Gainesville”. Sadly, that feeling wound up being spot on. Even more sad is that it really applies more to Gator Nation heading into the 2024 season. Despite an ugly season-opening loss at Utah, the Gators rebounded with a big home win over Tennessee and got to the Georgia game with a 5-2 record. That’s when the wheels fell off, with a terrible 5-game losing streak to end the season caused by abysmal defense and some brutally-bad playcalling in critical moments. Florida ended 2023 with a third-straight losing season, and my best description of the prognosis for 2024 is “what DEFCON level is the program at? I’d say right now a 2, approaching 1 with a slow start. Could things actually get worse? Yes, they could.
Billy Napier courted even more controversy by staying with Austin Armstrong as the Defensive Coordinator, but brought in Ron Roberts from Auburn as an actual adult in the room who should command the respect of the defensive assistants, which Armstrong failed miserably at. It led to the firing of two very respected position coaches in Sean Spencer and Corey Raymond, and generated even more questions about Napier’s leadership and decision-making. Napier also had to replace both his Strength and Conditioning coach and Head Nutritionist, as it was painfully obvious as the season progressed that the Gators were lacking in both areas. Again, that reflects directly on the head coach and his decision-making capability.
The key personnel losses were WR Ricky Pearsall, RB Trevor Etienne, and DE Princely Umanmielen. While Pearsall moved on to the NFL as a 1st-round draft pick, Etienne and Umanmielen transferred to Georgia and Mississippi, respectively, leaving by taking some pointed shots at the coaching they received at Florida. Both are on the 2024 schedule, and just add more fuel to the fire that Napier is in over his head trying to lead a SEC program. Only his recruiting and coaching (or lack of) will answer the questions, which I’ll try to address here.
Offense
The Gator offense of 2023, despite some statistical success, proved to be limited in explosive play capability and inept at moving fast when the situation dictated it. From the maddeningly slow pace and lack of urgency in the opener at Utah through the painfully conservative play (and unnecessary double-reverse pass that failed miserably and completely shifted the momentum of the game) in the last game against Florida State, Napier’s playcalling and seeming lack of feel for game flow and intensity had many fans howling for outright changes for 2024. It appears he is doubling-down on himself, however, stating he will still be the primary playcaller while hedging with adding game plan and scheme input form TE coach Russ Callaway. At this point I’d say the majority of Gator Nation won’t simply take those statements at face value, and wants to see proof of concept throughout the season.
The QB position is firmly in the hands of Graham Mertz after a solid 2023 season, and his play and leadership are critical to any success the offense and entire team has in 2024. Mertz showed he could direct an efficient short passing game with great accuracy, but that same passing game was neither consistently effective nor quick-striking. Too many times when Florida needed a quick score, Napier’s plodding game plan and Mertz’s lack of downfield accuracy doomed the Gators to a loss. Even with what hopes to be a better O-line and a more open attack with input from Callaway, Mertz has to show improvement. He needs to prove to defenses that he can utilize the entire field, and also help keep plays alive by managing the pocket better under pressure instead of scrambling out to the right and killing the play. Heralded freshman DJ Lagway has already cemented himself as the #2 QB, and showed some promise with both his arm strength and running ability in the spring. He will get some limited packages almost immediately to gain experience, but has to show he’s not just a placeholder and be effective when given the opportunity. He has already shown enough maturity to not be overwhelmed by anything thrown his way so far, but we’ll see what happens when things get real. Napier did a good job here by getting Clay Millen to transfer in from Colorado St. He is a redshirt junior with plenty of playing experience and can keep things afloat if required, unlike the backup QBs of the previous 2 seasons.
The running back room came into fall camp as a group that, while not spectacular, looked solid and deep. This despite the fact that it’s home-run hitter, Etienne, gave the Florida program and Napier a huge slap in the face by transferring to Georgia of all places, while departing with some choice comments about the program and Napier when he exited. Then, in the very first few days of fall camp, Montrell Johnson went down with a knee injury that no one really knows the severity of. Allegedly he is already back on on the practice field in a limited capacity after surgery, but his availability is unknown for the season opener and the next few weeks after. He is by far the most experienced returning back and projected to be one of the team leaders, so any prolonged absence could really hurt the offense. Losing his ability and experience in pass protection and as an outlet receiver that knows his routes are things that the casual fan doesn’t think about……until something bad happens. Treyaun Webb is likely the starter in Johnson’s place, but didn’t get many snaps in 2023 and is still learning the finer points of the position. True Freshman Jaden Baugh is a big, powerful back with decent speed that was coveted by major programs. He had his moments in spring practice and the Orange and Blue Game, and there is some buzz he could be really good very early on. Ja’Kobi Jackson is a junior with very little game experience that seems to have found his game recently. He is likely the quickest and shiftiest of the backs and surprised in the spring. Finally, true freshman Kahnen Daniels is another promising prospect that may be forced into action much sooner than desired, but could also make some plays. Johnson’s quick return would certainly provide some reassurance to the rest of the offense and be that known quantity that every coach and QB wants.
The WR corps is the deepest it’s been since Napier took over, but still lacks overall experience and proven production beyond super sophomore Tre Wilson. The loss of Pearsall will be felt, and Wilson has to step into the leadership role immediately. He has the speed and elusiveness to be one of the best in the SEC, and showed even as a freshman he wasn’t afraid of the big stage. Chimere Dike is a transfer from Wisconsin that knows Mertz well and should step right in as a starter. Elijhah Badger transferred in from Oregon and seems to have secured the WR3 slot. Kahleil Jackson returns with probably the best hands of the group and will be in the rotation. Injuries happen, though, and depth is needed, so the unit still needs to find production out of returning receivers Marcus Burke, Ja’Quavion Fraziars, Andy Jean, and Aiden Mizell. There is too much speed and size among them to simply be wasted. Lastly, true freshmen Tank Hawkins and TJ Abrams have elite speed and elusiveness, and could be incorporated as threats on jet sweeps and also in the return game. This group may be relied upon more heavily than in Napier’s first two seasons, especially if the running game struggles early.
The TE room has been significantly upgraded the past year and a half, and finally could be a consistent contributor to the offensive attack. Arlis Boardingham and Hayden Hansen took over the position in 2023, and each showed some flashes of what they can do. Boardingham is the quicker and better pass-catcher of the two, and gave defenses problems in the intermediate and red zones as he gained more playing time the second half of last season. Hansen is a huge player at 6’7″ and 260 lb., and was an effective in-line blocker and occasional red zone target given the size advantage he possesses. Both should be better with added experience. Tony Livingston is a sophomore with lots of athletic ability, but he has to prove he’s a willing blocker and has learned the playbook to gain more snaps. True freshman Amir Jackson impressed in the spring, but likely won’t see much action until he improves his blocking and is still learning the playbook. I’m hoping position coach Callaway can get this unit more involved this season with his increased role in developing the game plan and playcalling.
As much as the offensive line was a pleasant surprise in 2022, it was an unpleasant one in 2023. It was bad enough that the talent level was mediocre at best to begin with, but the lack of experience and depth behind the starters was magnified as the season wore on. The running game struggled too often, and Mertz was running for his life too often and eventually incurred a season-ending injury against Missouri. The lack of good O-line play led to the handcuffing of much of the playbook, leading to those long drawn-out drives when expediency was a must, and the high completion percentage for Mertz that didn’t really translate into a passing attack that stretched the field and threatened defenses. Rob Sale hasn’t shown he can recruit or develop SEC-level players to date, and he and new assistant O-line coach Jon Decoster have a LOT of work to do. There is some quality returning with Austin Barber at LT and Jake Slaughter at center, but still many questions. Can the right side of the line finally be upgraded with more experience and some position switches? Damieon George moves to guard, and San Diego St. transfer Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson gets first crack at RT. Knijeah Harris, Roderick Kearney, and Brycee Lovett are touted 2nd-year players that will have to step into contributing roles along the interior, while someone out of the group of Kamryn Waites, Caden Jones, and Arkansas transfer Devon Manuel have to provide some meaningful depth and snaps at the tackle positions. It goes without saying that this group’s success or failure will ultimately decide the fate of the Gator offense in 2024. The O-line play at Florida has been mediocre and inconsistent for far too many seasons since 2009, and that’s a killer in the SEC.
Defense
And I thought it couldn’t get any worse. Defensive Coordinator Austin Armstrong was completely overmatched, showing his lack of experience and leadership in rolling out a historically bad unit in 2023 that matched dubious records set back in the 1940s. The entire season was plagued by horrific tackling, terrible in-game management, confusion in lining up throughout the season, and a dearth of turnovers. In addition, there was a LOT of infighting between Armstrong and then-DL coach Spencer and then-secondary coach Raymond – both successful position coaches whom Armstrong apparently thought he knew more than. Other than all of that, all was well. It’s become so bad that Napier had to go out and hire an actual experienced DC in Roberts to try and helm the defense, provide maturity and leadership, and babysit Armstrong, who for some reason still is on staff while Napier fired Spencer and Raymond. Roberts comes from Auburn and is the alleged “godfather” of this scheme, which in itself is VERY worrisome, as this scheme hasn’t shown anything positive in 2 seasons. Much is riding on Roberts making this unit simply functional and looking even marginally adequate to give the team any chance for success in 2024 – that’s how bad things have become. If he fails, then both he and Armstrong are gonna find a horse head in their bed.
The defensive line started fall camp with more depth and experience than it has in years, but there are still issues. The best pass rusher, Umanmielen, is now at Mississippi. Jamari Lyons, who was going to be in the 4-man rotation at DT, broke his ankle in the first fall practice and is out for the season. The tackle position is still in decent shape with returning starters Cam Jackson and Caleb Banks, but touted Penn transfer Joey Slackman has to step in and contribute immediately. The injury to Lyons will force at least one undersized DE into the rotation – either Tyreke Sapp or Kelby Collins. It’s the Last Chance Saloon for Des Watson, who supposedly has lost some weight from an obese 460+, but I’m not expecting much from him. True freshman Michai Boireau may be forced into early action as well. The situation at DE/Edge looks much better, starting with the return of Justus Boone after missing all of 2023 with a knee injury. His leadership was sorely missed last season. Collins, Kamran James, and TJ Searcy showed flashes as true freshmen, and are expected to contribute much more. Jack Pyburn was coming on late in 2023 when he suffered a season-ending knee injury in November, and has made a rapid recovery – hopefully he’s ready to play earlier than expected. Finally, true freshman LJ McCray is a 5-star recruit that has already shown well in spring practice and will play this season. New DL coach Gerald Chatman has some decent talent and depth to work with, and hopefully can get this unit to play with more speed and aggression than seen the previous 2 seasons. It’s incumbent upon this group to generate a better pass rush than last season, as well as making more plays at or behind the line of scrimmage, to give the rest of the defense any chance for improvement and the team more opportunities to win games. Here’s hoping the group as a whole is in better shape this fall and actually allowed to play more aggressively by the scheme and play calls from Armstrong or Roberts – whomever is actually calling the defense.
The linebacker unit performed poorly as well last season and has much to prove. There has been a lot of roster turnover and an injection of young and older talent, but can it all come together – and quickly? It all starts with Shemar James, by far the most accomplished and talented player, who returns from a knee injury suffered in last year’s Georgia game which really hurt the entire defense. His leadership and playmaking was missed, and his return provides a huge boost. Grayson “Pup” Howard transferred in from South Carolina, where he played well as a true freshman in 2023, and looks to be an immediate starter. Senior Derrick Wingo is the best run defender but has to improve in pass coverage. Sophomore Jaden Robinson showed some promise in limited action in 2023 and has to take on an increased role. Look for 2 outstanding true freshmen recruits – Aaron Chiles and Myles Graham (son of Earnest) – to get immediate snaps. They are that talented and need to provide immediate depth. This unit has more talent than it has in years but also lacks experience. Roberts coaches the LBs and has a good track record as a position coach, and along with Mike Peterson really needs to bring this group along quickly.
To complete the trifecta, the secondary also struggled mightily last season, allowing far too many explosive plays and 3rd-down conversions that led to some brutal late-game collapses and losses. New secondary coach Will Harris comes in with some excellent credentials from both college and the NFL and looks so far as a strong hire by Napier. He inherits the defensive unit with the most returning talent, depth, and experience, but must rebuild their confidence and mold them into a well-functioning group. The cornerback position is led by Jason Marshall, who surprisingly returns to Florida for his 4th year as a starter. He has high-round NFL ability and just needs to find consistency in his game. Devin Moore is likely the starter opposite Marshall. He has proven ability to be a solid SEC CB, but in his case the most important ‘ability’ is availability – he’s been dogged by multiple injuries his first 2 seasons and must stay healthy. Ja’Keem Jackson, Aaron Gates, and Dijon Johnson are all true sophomores who flashed ability and playmaking skills in limited roles last season and will receive plenty of snaps in the CB rotation. The safety position was a mess in 2023, highlighted by poor tackling, lack of ball skills, and recurring blown assignments. Part of this was inexperience as multiple true freshmen were thrown into the fire, but the coaching and scheme disagreements between Armstrong and Raymond removed any real chances for success. Transfers Trikweze Bridges from Oregon and Asa Turner from Washington are both 5th-year seniors with starting experience at successful programs and will be in the mix for starting roles. Jordan Castell and Sharrif Denson took their lumps as freshmen last season and should be much improved. Some combination of sophomores Bryce Thronton and DJ Douglas, along with freshmen Jameer Grimsley and Teddy Foster, have to step up and provide some immediate depth.
Special Teams
Once again, the “Gamechangers” made a mockery of that title for most of 2023. There were multiple penalties of the usual sort, but two especially egregious mistakes directly led to two losses. First, there was the “two players with the same number on the punt return unit” penalty against Utah that led to a TD late in the first half and crippled Florida’s chances of victory. The second was running the FG unit onto the field against Arkansas while the offense was wondering if the ball should be spiked to stop the clock. The referees somehow didn’t penalize Florida as they should have, and the potential winning FG at the end of regulation was missed amid the confusion. Unacceptable. There were plenty of mindless holding penalties and other instances of a lack of focus and coaching that hindered success.
Napier has brought in Joe Houston to help coordinate the special teams, and yes – “Houston, there is a problem”. It’s time to show professionalism across the board with these units. Fortunately, Florida returns one of the top kicking duos in the country for 2024 to provide a solid starting point. Trey Smack took over as the placekicker in the Tennessee game and did a very good job the rest of the way. Yes, he missed that FG against Arkansas and a critical one against F$U, but no one will make every kick. He showed a strong leg, making multiple FGs from beyond 50 yards, and was generally accurate. He was also a weapon on kickoffs, driving most of his kicks into or beyond the end zone for touchbacks. Punter Jeremy Crawshaw built upon a solid 2022 season and was one of the best in the country in 2023. He has great leg strength, and improved his hang time. He also proved adept at directional kicking when needed, continually pinning opponents inside their own 20-yard line to force long drives and improving the chances for better field position for the offense.
The kickoff return game took a step back in 2023, despite the combination of Etienne and Pearsall getting most of the reps. Blocking was poor, and there were too many penalties. With both gone now, the door is open for some new guys to provide some juice, with hopefully some better blocking and coaching from coach Houston. There are plenty of candidates that can break long returns, including Wilson, Dike, and Mizell, and some of the freshmen like Hawkins and Abrams. The same issues popped up with punt returns as well. Someone from that same list of potential returners can inject some juice into a long-moribund unit. Kickoff and punt coverage were bright spots, and among the best in the SEC and country. With the deepest roster since Napier arrived, I expect this to continue with plenty of talent available.
Special Teams as a whole should be more settled and the best that Napier has fielded. Yes, that’s a low bar, but you gotta start somewhere. It seems he has started to realize that having a dedicated coach to oversee all special teams makes sense and should lead to better continuity, less in-game mistakes, and overall improvements.
Schedule and Outlook
The 2024 schedule is BRUTAL. 9 ranked teams (mostly in the Top 15), traditional powers, and a 5-game stretch to end the season that might be most difficult in Gator football history – and that is not hyperbole. The first 7 games are no cakewalk either, but if the Gators are going to have any hope of having a winning record and getting to a bowl game, and if Billy Napier wants to keep his job, a fast start and winning 5 or 6 of them is essential.
Miami – Win
Talk about a critical opener for both programs. Struggling teams, coaches on the hot seat, a seldom-played but intense in-state rivalry, and the need for a winning start to the season. Miami has struggled on the road in recent seasons, and, while they have a solid new QB in Washington St. transfer Cam Ward, they are breaking in a new secondary and simply haven’t played up to their ability. Stupor-Mario Cristobal understands this rivalry as a former Hurricane player, but his coaching has been as lackluster as Napier’s, and my hope is that playing in the Swamp is enough for Florida and it’s rebuilt defense to escape with a close win. This game is a must-win for Napier – if Florida loses, it will be DEFCON 1 in Gator Nation.
Samford – Win
This game should be a breather, but there will be a letdown no matter what from the previous week. It’s on the coaching staff and team leaders to get the team focused on winning. As always in games like these – NO INJURIES, please.
Texas A&M – Loss
This is where things start to get tricky. The Aggies have a new head coach in Mike Elko and have recruited very well the past 3 years, but are still one of the biggest up-and-down teams from week to week. Can Elko provide more consistency in performance? Their defense will provide a stiff challenge, and I expect this game won’t be decided until late. This is just the kind of game in which Napier’s teams have laid an egg.
@MIssissippi State – Win
Napier has had little success on the road so far, so until his teams show improvement there, it will be hard to predict any wins. In this case, however, the Bulldogs are bringing in a new head coach, new offensive system, and have had a huge roster turnover. The Gators will come in with a more established and experienced QB, which should be enough to carry the day. Starkville is a weird place to play, though, and Florida has struggled there historically.
Bye Week
UCF – Win
Another must-win for Napier. Losing to this Johnny-come-lately program would be a crushing defeat for the program and something that could really fragment the team camaraderie – and the fan base. This will be UCF’s biggest game of the season, and they will pull out all the stops to try and get the upset. You never know what Gus Malzahn will cook up – he’s a weird dude, but will throw everything he can at the Gators.
@Tennessee – Loss
Florida handled the Vols in Gainesville last year, and Tennessee struggled after that to a season far below expectations. This will be a very tough test, and Josh Heupel’s offense will cause problems for the Gator defense. I’m going with a loss here while still in wait-and-see mode on Napier’s road game performance against legit teams.
Kentucky (Homecoming) – Win
Another important game. Florida has shockingly lost 3 straight to the Wildcats, and have looked terrible in each game. It’s another opportunity for the coaching staff to prove they are better prepared than previous seasons and for the Gators to re-establish themselves in the series. Mark Stoops will bring in his usual well-coached defense, and try to get another grind-it-out upset.
Bye Week
Georgia (Jacksonville) – Loss
The Bataan death march begins. Even if Florida has shown by now that they have improved, they are still overmatched in talent and coaching in this game. Normally I’d hope for an all-out effort and a chance at an upset, but not yet. This will be 7 out of 8 losses in the series, and could bode ill for the rest of the season and Napier’s chances of surviving.
@Texas – Loss
No rest for the Gators, as they travel to play a resurgent Texas program. Steve Sarkisian is an elite playcaller, and this could be Florida’s toughest defensive test of the season. The Gators are capable of pulling off an upset, but after the emotional game against Georgia it will be that much tougher to do it.
LSU – Win
Florida has been dominated in this series since 2009, and have found some improbable ways to lose. This game has become as much a mental hurdle as a physical one, and often that’s much harder to overcome. I’m taking a leap of faith that the Gator defense will be extra motivated after last year’s historical collapse, and that coming back home to the Swamp provides enough of an emotional lift to get a much-needed win.
Mississippi – Loss
In a vacuum, I could see Florida with a good chance of winning this game. But after the grind of a brutal SEC schedule, it could be too much to get up for one last conference game against another elite play-caller in Lane Kiffin. I get the feeling this will be a wild back-and-forth game from start to finish, but that the Rebels steal a win late.
@Florida $tate – Win
Again, if Florida hadn’t by now played such a monster schedule and been through the wringer physically, mentally, and emotionally, I wouldn’t hesitate to predict a win. As it stands, though, I’m predicting a victory because of the team at this point being battle-hardened and already having faced much tougher competition. The Criminoles were gutted by graduation and defections to the NFL, and haven’t come close to replacing that lost talent. Despite the game being in Taliban City, I’m hoping for an upset win to close out the regular season for the Gators.
Overall Record 7-5
SEC Record 3-5
The 2024 season arrives with the lowest expectations from much of the fan base and national pundits since either Charley Pell’s first year in 1979 or perhaps even going further back to – yes – the 1940s. Such has been the recent level of performance from the players AND coaches. The schedule itself has been discussed everywhere since it’s release, and is a cause for legitimate concern. Florida’s projected win total over/under is 5.5, and it easily could wind up being under unless there is some fundamental improvement in both play AND playcalling. The offense must show it can attack the entire field, while the defense has been a punching bag for the past 3 seasons and has to restore some lost pride.
This is Billy Napier’s most talented and experienced Florida team overall, but it arrives at the same time as immense pressure to win more games to potentially save his job against what his defenders will say is an impossible gantlet of opponents. He has done himself no favors with multiple self-inflicted wounds, including bad coaching hires, bad situational playcalling, and simply dumb special teams mistakes that have directly led to losses. He and some of his assistants – current and former – have directly been the cause for 2-3 losses each of the previous 2 seasons. That’s unacceptable, especially when he has been given more resources financially and staff-wise than any previous Florida coach, and has not shown a positive return-on-investment to date. It’s both sad and disappointing that even predicting 7 wins is seen by many as wildly optimistic.
Lots of new faces in key roles – again – and a lot to prove to themselves and the country – again. You can’t hide in the SEC, and the good (or bad) will be exposed quickly. The schedule is likely one of the handful of most difficult Florida has ever faced, which allows no leeway for mistakes or chances to slowly improve as the season progresses. The season could go a lot of ways, and we’re about to see where. I believe winning 7 games would be a very successful season, which is a sad state of affairs and a separate discussion in itself. Anything above that would be near-miraculous. If additional injuries hit key players, the lack of talent and experience at certain positions will be quickly magnified. Things will turn ugly – and fast. Napier has lost most of the goodwill he arrived with, and Gator Nation – even the casual fan – is taking notice of the poor performance of not just the players, but some of the coaches. This season arrives with more trepidation than excitement.
It’s that time again……Heeeeeeeeeeeere come the Gators!